2025-26 record: 12-2 (9-1 Big 12)

Head Coach: Joey McGuire (entering year five)

Until another team in the Big 12 can compete with Texas Tech’s spending, it will be a mainstay at the top of the conference for the foreseeable future. According to team NIL spending estimates from nil-ncaa.com, Texas Tech outspends the second-highest spender in the conference by nearly $10 million, with an estimated budget of $33.32 million. 

Even with the drama that the highly coveted quarterback transfer Brenden Sorsby brought to Lubbock this offseason, the Red Raiders should be great no matter who the signal-caller is. The QB position is somewhat up in the air with a recent portal addition, though it will likely be sophomore Will Hammond starting, who’s coming off a season-ending ACL tear last October. 

While Texas Tech certainly lost a lot of defensive talent to the NFL draft, they reloaded once again in the portal. Their defensive portal class was headlined by Kansas State transfer linebacker Austin Romaine, along with bringing in various top mid-major prospects. Edge rusher Adam Trick racked up 12.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks last season at Miami (OH), and cornerback Davin Martin from UTSA allowed zero touchdowns on 33 targets last year. 

Overall, regardless of the Brendon Sorsby saga, Texas Tech should still reign supreme over the Big 12 and will stay atop the power rankings until further notice.

2. BYU

2025-26 record: 12-2 (8-2 Big 12)

Head Coach: Kalani Sitake (entering year 11)

BYU has been a model of consistency in the short three years they have been in the conference, tied with Texas Tech for the most conference wins in the past two years with 12 during the stretch.

The Cougars crucially return two key starters in the backfield, which should set them up for success. Reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year running back LJ Martin returns along with sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who were both vital parts of the success the program saw last year. 

The defense should also be in a position to be very good again as well, as eight players from the 2025 defense returned for this year, according to cbssports.com. This unit only surrendered 19.1 points per game last year, which was good for the 19th-lowest in the nation. 

With a good amount of returning production and a proven model of consistency not only in the new “NIL” era of college football, but also in the new Big 12, the Cougars should be poised for another great year as the program continues to ascend. The only worry this program had during the offseason was rumors of head coach Kilani Sitake leaving for Penn State, which halted shortly after they started when Sitake inked a long-term extension last December.

3. Houston

2025-26: 10-3 (6-3 Big 12)

Head Coach: Willie Fritz (entering year three)

Following a breakout year for head coach Willie Fritz’s squad last year, they returned plenty of the pieces that helped them to their first double-digit win season since joining the Big 12. 

With the dynamic duo of fifth-year quarterback Connor Weigman and senior wide receiver Amare Thomas both returning for another season, the Cougars should be poised for an even better year. 

Other key offensive pieces include highly coveted transfer senior guard Shadre Hurst from Tulane, along with fifth-year left tackle Alvin Ebosele returning. This Houston offense should be fireworks no matter what, with the defense just needing to be good enough for the program to reach its goals. 

Houston was a very confusing team last year, achieving great heights but not without some head-scratching losses and blips in consistency, like a road loss to 4-8 West Virginia. The thing holding me back from being all in on the Cougars is just that: inconsistency.

 While neither the offense nor defense was particularly outstanding for Houston last year, the balance of both being good is what propelled the Cougars to success, and I believe that will largely continue this year as the offense improves. 

Aside from a week 3 game at Texas Tech and a week 8 game at Utah, Houston should be favored in every game they play. It will simply be a matter of consistency that decides just how well the Cougars' season can unfold.

4. Utah

2025-2026 record: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12)

Head Coach: Morgan Scalley (entering year one)

In a largely unexpected move to most, in the offseason, Utah’s longtime head coach Kyle Whittingham left the program to become the head coach at Michigan. 

Despite the odd timing of this move, it was one that Utah’s administration had been preparing for over the years as Whittingham aged. Scalley was always viewed as the eventual “successor” to Whittingham whenever he chose to retire, having been with the program as a player and coach since 2001 himself. So while the timing may be jarring, Utah is quite prepared for this situation. 

With quarterback Devon Dampier returning for his senior season, the Utes offense, and specifically the run offense, should once again be amongst the best units in the country as it was last year. Utah lost both starting offensive tackles to the draft and a couple of key defensive transfers to Michigan. 

These things compiled with the coaching change, are the reasons I do not expect Utah to be quite as good as last year. The Utes are still a serious contender in the Big 12 but may lack some of the consistency seen under Whittingham as they transition into a new era of Utah football.

5. Arizona State

2025-2026 record: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)

Head Coach: Kenny Dillingham (entering year four)

Arizona State is poised to make noise once again in the Big 12 despite a lot of roster turnover. 

The main question for ASU heading into the season is how the roster will perform with only 3 returning starters. 

The Sun Devils already proved in 2024 how overrated a stat returning production truly is, going on a magical run with few tenured players. The Sun Devils have also shown the ability to be a great collective despite traditional stats like returning production and recruit rankings not favoring them. 

If there is one thing that Kenny Dillingham has proved so far in his tenure in Tempe, it is that he knows how to develop and get the most out of not only quarterbacks but his rosters in general. 

Dillingham’s quarterback development was mainly seen with Sam Leavitt’s incredible strides in Tempe and even solid quarterback play from backup Jeff Sims. Likewise, Dillingham’s track record with quarterbacks extends to before his days at ASU, coaching the likes of Bo Nix at Oregon and Jordan Travis at Florida State. 

With the additions of two top-five receivers in the portal in seniors Omarion Miller from Colorado and Reed Harris from Boston College, the Sun Devils’ offense should be in position to be extremely explosive and successful. 

However, ASU’s success is all dependent on the most important position: quarterback. 

Dillingham’s development skills will certainly be needed, as the Sun Devils look to sophomore Kentucky transfer quarterback Cutter Boley to fill the team’s signal-caller role.

Though there are certainly questions surrounding the roster and personnel, the staff has remained a constant source of stability. I believe Kenny Dillingham’s staff, including his great pair of coordinators and top-tier position coaches, will ultimately be what helps propel the Sun Devils to success this year. 

Though ASU’s schedule is not particularly favorable, with all three ranked opponents coming on the road at Texas A&M, Texas Tech and BYU, this team could very well still contend for the conference and be a very high-quality bowl team. 

6. Kansas State

2025-2026: 6-6 (5-4 Big 12)

Head Coach: Collin Klein (entering year one)

This may be the most controversial placement on the entire list, but I really do believe in senior quarterback Avery Johnson and first-year head coach Collin Klein to ultimately figure it out and be a very good team in the Big 12. 

There are certainly a lot of question marks about this team, and rightfully so. Playing in such an offense-driven league like the Big 12, I believe the Wildcats have the potential to do some serious damage this year in the league despite a worrying 2025 campaign. 

The Wildcats’ offense should be a very fun watch this year, as Klein brings over a lot of the concepts that helped him succeed at Texas A&M. After seeing how much dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed thrived in Klein’s system, I have no doubt that Johnson will be able to do the same thing and maybe to a better degree. 

Though a lot of the pieces around Johnson are shifting, that is not necessarily a bad thing considering just how underwhelming the Wildcats were last season. Furthermore, Klein is a former Kansas State quarterback and coached at the school before this year, even initially being the one who recruited Johnson. 

I tend to believe the staff that Klein built is what is going to elevate the Wildcats so much, as he brought many friends with him from the Aggies, even defensive coaches.

Overall, I am a big believer in the new era of Kansas State football under Klein and believe that they are going to be a very good bowl team with an incredibly fun-to-watch offense.

7. Oklahoma State

2025-2026 record: 1-11 (0-9 Big 12)

Head Coach: Eric Morris (entering year one)

Following a transcendent breakout year at North Texas, where his team was number one in points per game and yards per game, head coach Eric Morris brought the majority of the staff and personnel that made the Mean Green so special last season over to Stillwater when he took the job during the offseason. 

The main question is whether or not the offense and production will translate from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. Sophomore quarterback Drew Mestamaker, junior wide receiver Wyatt Young and sophomore running back Caleb Hawkins are three players to watch for the Cowboys as they hope to turn it around this year. 

Mestamaker led the country in passing yards last year to go along with 34 passing touchdowns, after walking on at North Texas. Young and Hawkins are both coming off of 1,000+ yard seasons, respectively, and should help make the transition easier for the Cowboys. 

Defense was a bit of an issue at North Texas, and I do expect that to continue in Stillwater, but if the unit can simply be average, Oklahoma State should not have much trouble achieving its goals for the season. This team is going to be a very fun watch throughout the year and undoubtedly has the offensive potential to give almost anyone in the conference a great game.

8. Arizona

2025-2026 record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12)

Head Coach: Bret Brennan (entering year three)

After a terrific year two, head coach Bret Brennan’s squad aims to take the next leap into true conference title contention. Returning senior quarterback Noah Fifita is the centerpiece of the Wildcats’ offense and a large reason why they are generating a lot of buzz, but I am not completely sold on the operation as a whole. 

A lot of pieces around Fifita are continuing to shuffle, as more questions arise specifically with the defense who lost four starters to the NFL last spring. While the team is certainly poised for a great year with plenty of returning production, I believe that their record last year came partially as a result of an easy schedule and an overall down year for the Big 12. 

The Wildcats will certainly be an interesting team who can compete with most teams in the conference, but I see them taking a slight step back from last year as the schedule strengthens and as the conference around them improves a lot as a whole. I see this team as a quality bowl team, with the potential to break through in the Big 12 undoubtedly. 

9. TCU

2025-2026 record: 9-4 (5-4 Big 12)

Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (entering year five)

Following a good year, the Horned Frogs still retain hope that they can reach the heights they saw in year one under head coach Sonny Dykes where he led them to the national title game. 

Despite previous successes, though, it seems like TCU is headed in the wrong direction as a program. 

Along with their quarterback from last year, Josh Hoover, transferring to a new school, the Horned Frogs got their offensive coordinator poached by South Carolina in the offseason as well. 

All of these factors combined with an uncharacteristically poor performance on Saturday, Aug. 29 in Dublin have greatly tempered my expectations for the program as a whole. 

A team that I and many others viewed as conference title contenders has proven that they aren’t to be taken that seriously and likely project more as a middle-of-the-pack team in the Big 12. 

With so many moving pieces and question marks at some of the most important positions, I believe that TCU will see a down year for its standards and leave its great fanbase wanting a little more once again.

10. Baylor

2025-2026: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)

Head Coach: Dave Aranda (entering year seven)

Head coach Dave Aranda’s Baylor squads have been hard to get a read on, to say the very least, and that should be no different this year. This is an absolutely pivotal year for Aranda as he enters the season on the hot seat. 

With junior quarterback DJ Lagway entering the program, expectations are once again high for the Bears. This is a crucial season in evaluating whether or not Baylor can return to the form it saw in 2021 under Aranda, barely missing out on the four-team playoff by one spot, or whether it will continue to look like a decent team and nothing more. 

Offense has never quite been the issue with recent Baylor squads, as the defense has continuously held them back. Last year, the Bears had a top-35 scoring offense, but due to being paired with their 122nd-ranked scoring defense, the team saw little success, allowing 32.6 points per game on average. 

The main question with the Bears is whether or not their defense can be good or even serviceable. 

If the defense can take a large step forward, the ceiling for Baylor gets pretty high, though it feels highly unlikely following their 2025 campaign. 

Even with seven defensive starters returning and a new defensive coordinator being hired, the chore of turning around the defense in one year is a very tall task, and likely won't happen. 

I believe Baylor is going to be an interesting team and a lot of fun to watch, but its defensive struggles will ultimately hold it back from reaching the heights it wants to as a program.

11. Kansas

2025-2026 record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)

Head Coach: Lance Leipold (entering year six)

Despite back-to-back “underwhelming” years at Kansas, I believe that the program is in a much better place under head coach Lance Leipold than it has been at any other point in my life. 

Leipold has really brought a newfound hope to the program, with their disappointing years nowadays being 5-7 versus the 2-10 we were all accustomed to from Kansas football. 

The Jayhawks are experiencing a lot of turnover this year, bringing in 30 new transfers and having just six returning starters. 

This could bode well for Kansas, as it wasn’t a great team last year. I am generally hopeful for the Jayhawks this year and do believe they will be playing in a bowl game this winter. 

The only thing that is holding me back from being a bit higher on Kansas is the uncertainty at quarterback with longtime starter Jalon Daniels finally graduating last year. 

I believe in Leipold and his systems overall, and expect Kansas to be a scrappy and fun team this year as it breaks in its new stadium. 

12. Colorado

2025-2026: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)

Head Coach: Deion Sanders (entering year four)

The team that was the biggest spectacle in the sport not even two years ago after hiring head coach Deion Sanders now looks forward to trying to build a more sustainable winner in Boulder. 

Now that the buzz of the Buffaloes has cooled down a lot, recruiting hasn’t been as fruitful as it was for Sanders at the beginning of his tenure, when he was pulling in five-star prospects and various other highly rated recruits. 

A large portion of those guys are gone, and that may be for the better. With the dreadful year the Buffaloes are coming off, I find it tough to even put them this high on the list. 

They still have pieces to be excited about, like highly touted sophomore quarterback Julian Lewis, the inconsistencies across the roster, and the high rate of roster turnover brewing for a new-look Colorado team. I am relatively optimistic about the direction of the program, as it continues to bolster what is one of the most loaded staffs in the entire conference. 

The foundation seems to be in place for Colorado, but the question is if the new infrastructure itself is enough to help the team be competent or if they will continue to spiral downward following the disaster last year.

13. Cincinnati

2025-2026: 7-6 (5-4 Big 12)

Head Coach: Scott Satterfield (entering year four)

Cincinnati football is in a weird spot. After a great start last year that even saw the team ranked in the top 25, it lost most of its best players that helped propel the team to success. 

This starts with quarterback Brenden Sorsby, who may not have played anyway but was a loss regardless. 

The Bearcats lost four starters to the NFL on top of the quarterback uncertainty. 

I expect Cincinnati to be one of the less exciting teams in the conference and do expect a bit of regression from last year. The one question that remains looming over Cincinnati is if it can reach the heights it once saw in the American Conference, where it managed to make the four-team college football playoff. 

I do not believe that the Bearcats will even get close to these heights under Scott Satterfield, who has been incredibly mediocre ever since he joined the Power 4 head coaching ranks in 2019. This team is quite uninspiring, but I don't believe that they are a bottom-feeder in the conference despite the overall mediocrity of the program in its current state. 

14. UCF

2025-2026: 5-7 (2-7 Big 12)

Head Coach: Scott Frost (entering year two)

Head coach Scott Frost’s second tenure at UCF has been nothing short of uninspiring and frankly bad. Ever since the magical 13-0 season the Knights had in 2017, they have been desperately trying to recapture that magic and falling short every time. 

The Knights have been a pitiful 7-20 in the Big 12 ever since joining, proving that they weren’t quite ready to make the jump to Power 4 and sustain success, but nonetheless here they are. 

UCF wasn’t good before it rehired Frost; let me make that clear - but it is arguably just as uninspiring as it was prior. 

The only thing that gets me somewhat excited to watch this team is James Madison transfer, senior quarterback Alonza Barnett, who finished last season with a combined 38 touchdowns and was a highly coveted portal player whom the Knights somehow landed.

While Frost has shown some signs of building something more consistent at UCF, I need to see it before I believe it. 

There is a good mix of returning production and portal talent that makes for a decent roster on paper with bowl game upside, but until the Knights can prove they can hang in the trenches with other Big 12 opponents, they will continue to struggle and stay near the bottom of the conference. Questions about Frost’s job will arise if this team doesn't make a bowl game.

15. Iowa State

2025-2026 record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

Head Coach: Jimmy Rogers (entering year one)

After longtime head coach Matt Campbell left in the offseason for Penn State, the Cyclones were left in ruins and had to rebuild from the ground up. As is common practice in today’s college football landscape, Campbell took many of his most talented players with him to Penn State, leaving Iowa State to essentially start from scratch. 

Iowa State has always been a program that overachieves for its investment level and size, and I fear Campbell was a big part of that. With quite literally zero returning starters for the Cyclones, the future seems pretty bleak. 

I do like the Jimmy Rogers hire in a vacuum, but he will have big shoes to fill and little time to do so. I believe that this is an insanely tough situation for a second-year head coach to be stepping into, and though I like Rogers, I believe it will take time for the program to get its feet back underneath itself. 

Arkansas State senior quarterback transfer Jaylen Raynor should be a solid replacement for Rocco Becht, but once again, when the team is completely decimated as the Cyclones were, it is incredibly hard to find success, not even one year removed from Campbell leaving. 

It may be a brutal season in Ames, though I do not think the future is as dark as other programs above the Cyclones.

16. West Virginia

2025-2026 record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez (entering year two)

After returning to the school nearly two decades after his first tenure, Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers had quite the uninspiring 2025 campaign.

Despite an upset win over Houston, the Mountaineers were truly awful last year, with both their scoring offense and defense finishing outside of the top 100 nationally. 

Rodriguez has been injecting new blood into the program for the last two years by adding as many three-star recruits as he can. We will see if this strategy of building a foundation and trying to build with it works, but I do not believe the foundation is even close to good enough to believe in. 

There were few good things to talk about last year with the Mountaineers, and that will likely continue despite so many new faces. 

This is a team that I will once again have to see proof of concept to really believe in, as right now it feels like Rodriguez is just recruiting any and everybody who wants to play for West Virginia. 

Overall, there is not much to be excited about heading into the year with the Mountaineers except for the 19 new starters they will field in the opener. This will likely be another throwaway year for the Mountaineers, but they certainly possess bowl game upside if the defense can get up to speed quickly.