PHOENIX— Fewer high school students across Arizona are graduating on time, raising concerns among administrators and policymakers about long-term social, economic and employment repercussions.

In recent years, the high school graduation rate has significantly dropped, putting Arizona behind states like Alaska, New Mexico and California. According to the Arizona Department of Education, Arizona’s graduation rate remained 77.3% from 2022 to 2024.

Arizona’s graduation rate remains lower than the national average of 86.6%. An analysis by Common Sense Institute of Arizona found that if the current trend continues, there could be almost 20,000 fewer high school graduates by the end of 2030.

Absences not only affect academic performance but can also limit students’ ability to stay engaged with coursework. As Arizona evaluates the reason behind lower graduation rates, some leaders point to attendance problems as a main concern.

“We cannot teach students that are not in school,” Tom Horne, head of the Arizona Department of Education, said.“The high school students who miss more than one-third of their classes face a bleak future.”

A 2023-2025 graduate rate cohort from the Arizona state government shows an apparent pattern. Suburban counties in Arizona have graduation rates above 80% while smaller rural school districts in Arizona are continuing to drastically lower the average by 24%.

Greenlee County and Maricopa County have the highest graduation rate in Arizona at 95%, while Pima County has the lowest graduation rate at 71%.

President of the Arizona Education Association, Marisol Garcia, explains that the declining graduation rates may originate from two factors: a teacher retention crisis and underfunded classrooms.

“Low pay and a lack of respect for educators are driving them away, which in turn harms students. Arizona needs to invest in our schools and our educators or this issue will continue to worsen,” Garcia said.

The decline in Arizona’s graduation rates is not just an educational issue, but also a significant economic issue.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that someone with a high school diploma and a bachelor's degree has a median annual income of $60,000 to $80,000, while someone without a high school diploma or a bachelor’s degree earns roughly $30,000 less.

Kyra Blackwell,a sophomore at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, said her college preparedness stemmed from the challenging course load in her suburban high school.

“I am not super-surprised about the decline in Arizona graduation rates, as many students do not take their academic career seriously,” Blackwell said. “My academic success determines if I can get into a Master's program, and therefore it truly matters.”

Many of the state’s young adults may face exclusion from higher-paying jobs and financial independence. Arizona’s graduation rate currently remains below 78%. Whether government officials choose to address the issue will likely influence the state’s workforce outcomes over the next couple of years.